On Tuesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data came in cooler than expected, and the bond market loved it, driving mortgage rates lower. Where do we go from here? Headline inflation is still very elevated historically, but the trend can be our friend over the next 12 months.

I say this because the most significant component of Core CPI is shelter inflation. The growth rate for rent is already cooling down in real-time data, but the shelter inflation data line of the CPI lags behind the current market reality. This means that what is happening in the present details ⇒

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