Inflation came in hotter than expected on Thursday, but we are still talking about rate cuts in 2024! The 10-year yield had a mild reaction to today’s data, increasing a few basis points early. It’s now at 3.98%, a far cry from 5.04% as we saw last year. This, while jobless claims data is still historically low.

As I have stressed time and time again, when the market believes the Federal Reserve is done hiking rates, the markets make a big move lower with the 10-year yield and mortgage rates. This has happened in every cycle for decades details ⇒

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