The growth rate of inflation has been falling for a year, but mortgage rates are still near multi-decade highs. Why? While it is true that mortgage rates traditionally fall alongside inflation, I believed 2023 was going to be about the labor market. This was the core premise of my 2023 forecast, and so far it has worked.

In my 2023 forecast, I set the range on the 10-year yield between 3.21%-4.25%, emphasizing that the bond yields can go lower than 3.21% only if the labor market breaks — which would require jobless claims to go over 323,000 on details ⇒

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