The CPI data released today shows the growth rate of inflation cooling off, and that’s good for mortgage rates. If inflation were running hot like in the 1970s, mortgage rates would have easily gotten to 8%-10% last year. The fact that the growth rate of inflation has been falling over the last few months is a positive story for mortgage rates over the long run. 

Let’s dig in to where mortgage rates are headed.

As shown below, the 10-year yield channel for 2023 aligns with my forecast for bond yields and mortgage rates. The chart also shows that details ⇒

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