Economic growth is expected to slow in 2026 and remain below trend for several years as higher interest rates and lingering inflation pressures weigh on the U.S. economy, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s December Economic and Mortgage Finance forecasts.

MBA economists Mike Fratantoni, Joel Kan and Judie Ricks wrote that the forecasts show 2025 GDP growth of 1.6% and a 35% chance of a recession over the next 12 months. Growth is expected to remain in a narrow range of about 1.5% to 1.7% from 2026 through 2028, the forecast said.

The outlook comes amid mixed economic signals. The details ⇒

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