The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) announced Sunday that it expects total single-family mortgage origination volume to increase to $2.2 trillion in 2026, up from $2.0 trillion expected in 2025.

Speaking at its 2025 Annual Convention and Expo, Mike Fratantoni, chief economist and senior vice president for research and business development; Joel Kan, vice president, deputy chief economist; and Marina Walsh, CMB, vice president of industry analysis, presented outlooks for 2026.

Purchase originations are forecast to increase 7.7% to $1.46 trillion next year and refinance originations are expected to increase 9.2% to $737 billion. By loan count, total mortgage origination details ⇒

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