Forecasting and advisory firm iEmergent expects U.S. mortgage originations to reach $2.27 trillion in 2026, a 13% increase from 2025, as slowing economic growth and easing interest rates are priming a rebound in refinance and home purchase activity.

The company released its 2025–2027 U.S. Mortgage Origination Forecast on Wednesday, which outlined a gradual housing market recovery after several years of subdued lending.

Mark Watson, iEmergent’s chief of forecasting, said the outlook for 2026 reflects a changing economic environment. As tariffs weigh on the economy, consumer confidence softens and the labor market cools, gross domestic product growth is expected to slow details ⇒

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