The share of first-time buyers in the U.S. housing market has fallen to 21%, the lowest on record. The historical norm is closer to 40%. That gap isn’t a blip, nor is it a rate-cycle artifact that corrects itself when the Fed moves. It’s a structural condition, and it sits at the root of why transaction volume has stalled in ways that price data alone cannot explain. 

Why the math stopped working

Repeat buyers and first-time buyers are not really in the same market. They are experiencing different versions of it.

A repeat buyer in 2026 is bringing $200,000, $300,000 or details ⇒

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