Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to lower the benchmark interest rate on Wednesday for the first time in more than four years. But it appears to be anyone’s guess as to how large the cut will be.

Interest rate traders were giving shorter odds on Tuesday afternoon to a cut of 50 basis points (bps), which would trim the Fed’s target range to 4.75% to 5%. According to the CME Group‘s FedWatch tool, 63% of traders expect rates to be dialed back by 50 bps, while 37% call for a cut of 25 bps.

Market observers, including several economists, have details ⇒

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