Every few years, someone in mortgage lending announces that we’re witnessing the dawn of the super-lender era. This time, they say, it’s different. The big players have the technology, the capital and the market conditions to finally achieve total vertical integration. Soon, we’ll all either work for a handful of massive institutions or find ourselves pushed out of the industry entirely.

I’ve heard this story before. Usually from consultants who’ve never actually originated a mortgage.

Here’s what’s actually happening: the industry is contracting, but not in the way most people think. We’re seeing weak operators exit the market while well-capitalized details ⇒

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