Aggressive tariffs, mortgage rates near 7% and declining consumer sentiment could all have a major impact on the housing market. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) has adjusted its outlook in response.

The trade group downwardly revised its expectations for existing-home sales and mortgage origination volume for the rest of the year. MBA now forecasts existing-home sales to finish 2025 at 4.266 million. It also calls for total origination volume of $1.397 trillion and refinance volume of $672 million.

MBA’s existing-home sales forecast is down from 4.341 million in March, while origination estimates are down from $1.406 trillion. But the details ⇒

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