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The first real test of mortgage rates: will they hit 8%?

The 10-year yield closed today above my key level of 4.25%: Does that mean mortgage rates will hit 8%? To understand what’s happening, here’s how I look at the bond market and mortgage rates in my forecast for 2023.

In my 2023 forecast, the range on the 10-year yield was between 3.21%-4.25%, emphasizing that the bond yields can go lower than 3.21% only if the labor market breaks — which would require jobless claims to go over 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

That 10-year yield channel equates to 5.75%- 7.25% mortgage rates. And since the labor market isn’t details ⇒

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